Politics
New Jersey isn’t a swing state, yet
President-elect Donald Trump earned a moral victory in New Jersey and most of his Republican running mates will take home the greatest participation trophies ever following the 2024 elections.
In the same breath, Republicans talking about New Jersey sound like NFL fans after their favorite team almost beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Here’s some reality about the NJGOP’s best day in a long time:
- Democrats won both statewide races with over 50% of the vote.
- Trump won Passaic County, but Democrats won County Sheriff and swept the Board of County Commissioners.
- Democrats retained their seats in the state’s Congressional delegation.
I’m sure Trump uplifted down-ballot Republicans in some of New Jersey’s 550+ municipalities. Nevertheless, the fundamentals remain unchanged and only one GOP candidate has won statewide in the past 25 years (Chris Christie).
For progressive activists and journalists, the self-serving analysis is that Trump’s success in New Jersey is partially a byproduct of voters rejecting traditional Democratic Party political machines.
The problem is the evidence suggests otherwise, especially in Hudson County.
Social media loves to rag on NJEA Pres. Sean Spiller for wasting teachers union funds on his gubernatorial campaign. In Spiller’s defense, I don’t think anyone (visibly) spent more resources in Hudson County promoting the top of the Democratic ticket.
Politico NJ’s Matt Friedman tweeted “if Tammy Murphy had been NJ’s Democratic Senate nominee and Bob Menendez had kept his name on the ballot, I think the Senate race would have been very close.”
The Menendez part was never going to happen, but if Tammy were the candidate (rather than Sen. Andy Kim) Vice President Kamala Harris’ numbers in Hudson County would’ve been significantly better. That’s because volunteers would be volunteering like their lives were on the line to make sure Tammy’s numbers were huge.
For better or worse, bosses still matter and in North Hudson the evidence can be found on social media. Just look at Union City Mayor/state Senator Brian Stack campaigning on October 28, 2023 versus October 28, 2024.
No one campaigned in any meaningful way for Harris or Kim in Hudson and the numbers reflected that (I’m assuming the same phenomenon occurred in Passaic to some extent). Ward E Councilperson James Solomon, a 2025 Jersey City mayoral candidate, volunteered for the vice president in Pennsylvania – which was the most proactive thing to do at the time if someone were truly opposing Trump.
Everyone across the political spectrum knew there was no chance Harris or Kim were going to lose New Jersey because the Democratic edge is theoretically insurmountable. The progressive grandstanding and journalist finger-pointing is more about scoring cheap political points that have little to do with things like fixing democracy in the Garden State.
All that said, if a candidate other than Rep. Mikie Sherrill becomes the Democratic nominee, it’s possible that the Hudson County civil war between gentrification (primarily progressives) and deep-rooted society (power structure of Hudson County Democratic Organization) creates an opportunity for Republicans to move the needle in 2025.
