The stars might be aligning for Steve Fulop

Nearly two years ago I wrote about the easiest path for Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop to become the next governor of New Jersey.

It started with Republicans winning the White House in 2024. Now that President Donald Trump has returned to Washington, it’s hard to imagine the Democratic nominee losing statewide in 2025.

Additionally, it was easily foreseen that Fulop’s perceived top two Democratic competitors – Representatives Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill – would face questions about focusing on higher office rather than fighting the new administration.

Nevertheless, my assumptions were based on a political system that has since deceased. No longer do the party bosses have The Line, a straight column of party-backed candidates that dominated primary elections, after a federal judge ruled it unconstitutional last year.

Since then Fulop has lost the support of the Hudson County Democratic Organization (HCDO) and rebranded himself as an anti-machine politician with progressive values. Whether that’s authentic or not is debatable, but he’s been spending a lot of money and there’s some positive signs.

A recent FDU poll found that Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Sherrill, and Fulop were pulling away from the other three contenders (Gottheimer, former state Senate Pres. Stephen Sweeney, and NJEA Pres. Sean Spiller). I’m not sure what conclusions can be drawn from the poll, but the news has boosted the morale of Fulop’s supporters.

With the demise of The Line and multiple candidates running competitive campaigns, there’s a plausible path for Fulop to win the primary with a small plurality (30%-35%). A source close to the mayor has declared him “social media’s candidate” and added that he’s only getting critical press coverage from HudPost.

Conversely, the county political machines remain powerful and seem to be coalescing behind Sherrill. Even if Fulop can win the primary, he’s become so antagonistic to party bosses that it’s not impossible to imagine weak voter turnout operations in the general election leading to a Republican like Jack Ciattarelli becoming the next governor.

Yes, the stars might be aligning for Fulop, but significant challenges remain