Breaking down the LD-32 Democratic primary

It’s hard to imagine there’s a state legislative district in New Jersey with a more competitive primary for the assembly than LD-32.

There are six viable candidates, running as three separate pairs, competing for two seats. It’s also very possible that whoever prevails in the Democratic Primary will win without a majority of voters supporting them.

LD-32 includes all of Hoboken and Wards C, D, and E in Jersey City (plus a small part of B). In last year’s 8th congressional district, there were 13,676 votes cast within the LD-32 portion of the district – 8,185 in Jersey City and 5,491 in Hoboken.

Besides a few districts from Wards B and C, 87% of LD-32 overlaps with CD-8 – which is why Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla has to feel good about his chances.

Although he was unsuccessful against Rep. Rob Menendez, Jr., Bhalla won 61% of the vote in the LD-32 portion of the district. Ranked number 7 in the HudPost 2025 power list, Bhalla has chosen to run with progressive activist Katie Brennan.

The dynamics between last year and this year are drastically different. Menendez faced unique challenges, there was no viable third option, and Bhalla was able to position himself as the “anti-machine progressive” – creating a simple dichotomy for voters.

Bhalla & Brennan are positioning themselves as the “anti-machine progressives,” but that’s also Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop’s candidacy for governor in a nutshell, so there’s no guarantee they will retain all of Bhalla’s votes from 2024.

Asw. Jessica Ramirez and Ward D Councilperson Yousef Saleh are running on Team Fulop. It might seem like a political eternity ago, but Ramirez first ran on The Line in 2023 without opposition and with the support of both Fulop and the Hudson County Democratic Organization (HCDO).

Despite Ramirez being seen as the stronger candidate on Team Fulop, Saleh has had more electoral success. They’ll be fighting with Brennan & Bhalla for the anti-HCDO vote, but they may also have some appeal with voters who backed Menendez.

Speaking of the HCDO, the machine is on life support in LD-32. Menendez got 31% of the vote within that portion of CD-8, but there were signs of trouble after Hudson County Executive Craig Guy’s primary in 2023.

Progressive activist Elana Little, running against The Line, got 46% of the vote to Guy’s 54% in LD-32. Notably, there was a 141% voter participation increase between the 2023 county executive and 2024 CD-8 Democratic primaries in LD-32.

From 2022 to 2024, Menendez lost 1,229 votes – 5,517 to 4,288 – and his vote share dropped from 65% to 31% within the LD-32 portion of CD-8. The good news for the HCDO is that it’s hard to imagine things getting much worse in 2025.

This year the HCDO is running Hoboken Library Director Jennie Pu and Crystal Fonseca, who works as a division director in the Jersey City Dept. of Public Works and is the daughter of well-known political consultant Pablo Fonseca.

Fonseca will come with a lot of street workers and statewide connections, Pu is an award-winning librarian with an organic following that’s new to politics. If that team can work together, the HCDO has a real chance of winning this race.

As previously noted, whoever wins may be elected with less than 50% of primary voters supporting them. Because there are three viable teams, it’s not hard to imagine that 40% might be enough to win. Two metrics that will likely determine the LD-32 Democratic primary winners are 1) voter turnout and 2) gubernatorial loyalty.

The past two Democratic primaries have shown that as voter turnout increases, HCDO vote share decreases. Is that an irreversible trend? Rep. Mikie Sherrill, running for governor with the HCDO’s endorsement, is their best hope to boost Fonseca & Pu.

If voter turnout matches or surpasses the 2024 Democratic primary, Fulop’s strength as a gubernatorial candidate will likely dictate whether Ramirez & Saleh or Bhalla & Brennan wins the 70% of non-HCDO voters.